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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.